Prognosticating on LAMP vs .NET, J2EE

Dvorak wrote an article on, “Windows Vista: Where’s the Buzz?,” in which he made some predictions on the future of web technology. It all started with his observation on the lack of excitement about Microsoft naming their coming OS as “Vista.”

Linux/Apache will own the server space and with the emergence of MySQL and PHP as the hot development tools over Microsoft .NET and J2EE there will be no way to unseat it. In popular parlance this is commonly referred to as LAMP.

It’s an interesting statement because MySQL and PHP are not as full-featured technologies as .NET and J2EE. So, from a large-scale developement perspective, they aren’t as strong options. They’re getting better with recent versions, but they still just don’t have the features.

But, that said, MySQL and PHP are both available at no-cost (though total cost of ownership is another debate) and they are easier to learn, in part because of the fewer features. The barrier to entry is lower. This fact alone may make Dvorak’s prediction come true.

And, there are some pretty impressive and large-scale web sites out there that use MySQL and PHP, so while they don’t have the depth of the more mature technologies, you can’t really scoff at them. They get the job done.

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